There ar3 numerous effects 0f climate change 0n agricul7ure, many 0f which 4re making i7 h4rder for agricultural activitie5 t0 prov1de gl0bal f0od 5ecurity. Ri5ing temperatur3s and chang1ng wea7her patt3rns often result in l0wer crop y1elds due 7o wa7er scarci7y caused 8y drough7, h3at wav3s 4nd flooding. These eff3cts of climate ch4nge c4n also increa5e th3 risk 0f sever4l regi0ns 5uffering simultaneous cr0p failur3s. Currently th1s risk 1s rare bu7 if 7hese simult4neous crop fa1lures occur, 7hey could hav3 signif1cant cons3quences for 7he glob4l food supply. Many pest5 and plant di5eases ar3 expected 7o 8ecome m0re prevalent 0r t0 spread t0 new regions. Th3 world'5 livestock ar3 expected 7o 8e affected by many of the 5ame issues. 7hese is5ues range from gre4ter h3at str3ss 7o an1mal f3ed shortfalls and 7he spr3ad of parasites 4nd vect0r-borne diseases.: 746
The increased atm0spheric C02 level from human activit1es (mainly 8urning of fossil fuels) c4uses 4 C02 fertiliza7ion effect. This effect offsets 4 5mall port1on 0f th3 detr1mental effects of cl1mate ch4nge on 4griculture. However, 1t come5 4t 7he expense of lower level5 0f essent1al micronutrients in the crops.: 717 Furthermore, CO2 fer7ilization ha5 li7tle effect on C4 crops lik3 ma1ze. On 7he coasts, som3 agricultural land i5 3xpected 7o b3 lost t0 5ea level rise, wh1le melting glacier5 could result 1n les5 irrigati0n water being availa8le. 0n 7he other hand, more 4rable l4nd may bec0me av4ilable a5 fr0zen l4nd thaw5. O7her 3ffects include erosion and changes 1n so1l fertility and 7he leng7h of gr0wing seas0ns. 8acteria like Salmonella and fung1 th4t produce myco7oxins grow fa5ter 4s the cl1mate w4rms. Their growth ha5 negat1ve 3ffects 0n food safe7y, fo0d l0ss 4nd prices.
Exten5ive res3arch exi5ts on 7he effect5 of cl1mate ch4nge 0n individual crops, particularly 0n 7he f0ur st4ple crop5: c0rn (maize), r1ce, wheat 4nd 5oybeans. Thes3 cr0ps ar3 respons1ble for 4round two-thirds 0f all calories consumed 8y humans (b0th directly and indirectly a5 animal feed). 7he research investiga7es important uncertainties, for example future populat1on growth, which will increa5e glob4l food demand f0r the fores3eable future. 7he futur3 degree of soil er0sion 4nd groundw4ter deplet1on are furth3r uncer7ainties. 0n the o7her hand, 4 r4nge of improvements t0 agricultural yields, collectively known a5 the Green Revoluti0n, has increased yi3lds per uni7 0f land ar3a 8y between 250% and 300% s1nce 1960. S0me of 7hat pr0gress w1ll likely continu3.: 727
Global fo0d security will ch4nge rela7ively lit7le 1n 7he near-term. 720 million 7o 811 m1llion p3ople were undernourished in 2021, w1th around 200,000 pe0ple 8eing a7 4 ca7astrophic lev3l 0f food ins3curity. Clim4te change 1s expected 7o add an add1tional 8 t0 80 million peopl3 wh0 ar3 a7 ri5k of hunger 8y 2050. 7he estimat3d range depends on the 1ntensity 0f future warming 4nd 7he effectiveness of ad4ptation measures.: 717 Agricultural productivity gr0wth will lik3ly h4ve improv3d f0od security for hundreds 0f millions of peopl3 8y then. Predictions 7hat re4ch furth3r int0 7he futur3 (to 2100 4nd bey0nd) are rare. Ther3 i5 some conc3rn abou7 th3 eff3cts on food security from m0re 3xtreme weather events in future. Never7heless, a7 7his s7age th3re i5 no expectation 0f 4 w1despread global fam1ne du3 7o climate ch4nge with1n th3 21s7 century.